UNILATERAL TESTS OF A NEW WORLD ORDER AT THE EXPENSE OF SOMALIA, VENEZUELA, AND GREENLAND

While Washington flaunts its power to Venezuela and Greenland, Tel Aviv, amid general indifference, recognises Somaliland as an “independent and sovereign state.” The Somali government declared the recognition “null and void,” calling it a violation of international law and a direct attack on Somali sovereignty. Political fragmentation could create opportunities for extremist groups, including Hizbul Shabaab and ISIS.

by Glauco D’Agostino

The surprise is not that Israel is expanding its influence to the Horn of Africa, because this is part of its geopolitical privilege as a nuclear power, albeit a modest one. The focus of this musing is on the temporal context of this reckless initiative and the weak reaction from other players involved in the region.

The temporal coincidence of international events has long been a key factor in understanding the behaviour and underlying motivations driving the various competitors involved.

The announcement of Somaliland’s recognition, which poses a challenge to the Federal Republic of Somalia (of which Somaliland is an integral part), comes just days before Somalia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council. This fact is not relevant in itself, as it is a largely symbolic position with no potential to influence global affairs.

But the announcement comes just days before the unconventional US attack on Venezuela, resulting in the kidnapping and deportation of the head of a legitimate UN state, accused of drug trafficking by a court with a clear lack of jurisdiction over him under international law. Here too, no surprise for many European governments, who have been accustomed, in some cases with serious and petty complicity, to the wicked “extraordinary renditions” always implemented by Washington.

This reflection does not intend to delve into the legal merits, let it be clear, also because, according to President Trump, supported by the countries de facto under his protectorate, international law has ceased to exist in the face of the force of military power. Even if Washington’s ambitions were to involve a NATO-backed protégé, such as Denmark’s Greenland, to be occupied or acquired, that’s a detail that will be clarified at the appropriate time.

Nothing unexpected on a geopolitical level, if President Trump, who has never been seriously listened to, has made quite clear even to his former allies the meaning of “America first,” which is very different from “Western world first.” In other words, sovereignism cannot be shared. There is no Western world that is not American.

Rather, the motivations have changed, now more explicit than the euphemistic pretences of the past, such as terrorism, human rights violations, defence of democracy, etc. Now, national economic interest covers any excuse for military actions and internal interference in nations, such as putsches and “territorial occupations of liberation.” In practice, if a territory is useful to me, I subjugate it because it is my right that no one can deny me. Otherwise, someone should try to do it.

Unfortunately, the echoes of the 1884-85 Berlin Conference resonate candidly in the ears of Europeans, who at the time made the same argument and reaped its rewards. It took two world wars for Europeans to realise their insignificance, as they settled for the rhetoric of an Atlanticism that, after all, fed them in conditions of irresponsibility.

The transition to the new world order, which inevitably does not include Europe among its protagonists due to these conditions, proves very dangerous for regions that could not or did not cultivate their own autonomy of behaviour, suffering, often against their will, the fate of systematic destabilisation. This also applies to Latin America and Africa, which are currently the subject of truly ruthless resource and land spoliation practices. But also the Islamic Republic of Iran perceives the danger, because it knows it could suffer the consequences of the destabilisation attempts that have once again been implemented in these hours.

What do Israel and Somaliland have to do with all this? The story seems to follow the same logic, although it’s difficult to draw a parallel with the Venezuela case.

To simplify. In the dominant mercantile logic, Israel has understood the lesson very well. Negotiating with its longtime American ally for the acquisition of a package of assets, whether territorial or economic, to occupy or control, requires getting its prior consent. Somaliland falls within the assets to be controlled, just as Gaza and the West Bank are already part of the proprietary regime of the “liberator.” Any counter-indications? None, given that Somalia was destabilised 35 years ago by Americans and Italians, and the Middle East was deconstructed in the 2000s by the will of a White House tenant with a significant lack of political and intellectual capacity.

As for Venezuela, let’s hope its fate does not fall under the destabilisation plans that Washington’s cynicism has always inspired, starting with Somalia, continuing with Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and so on.

Somalia is under attack again today, albeit in terms of territorial sovereignty. Here we go again. On the topic, I wrote back the following sentences in a 2013 article that is still relevant in many ways: “It may be inconvenient for several governments to stabilise the political situation, as this could clarify their more or less direct relationships with the (more or less legal) regimes in power from 1991 to 2005, and investigate the causes of maritime piracy.

Somalia had a chance to leave instability behind as the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts had legitimately unified the country in the name of restored security and a regulated justice system. The international sanction, as a tenet of military intervention wherever a political system is not appreciated, aims to bring the country into chaos. How much does it have to do, in terms of responsibilities, with extremism, and how much is a pure political and economic calculation of international lobbies?” (https://www.islamicworld.it/wp/somalia-who-takes-advantage-of-political-instability/).

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Since Somalia has not received the same attention in the West as the much more coveted Venezuela, here follows the elaboration of the Somaliland affair, taken from the following sources: Danielle Greyman-Kennard, in The Jerusalem Post, January 1^st, 2026, 17:54; Faisal Ali, in Al Jazeera, 1 Jan 2026; The Times of Israel, 1 January 2026, 5:29 pm; Abdi Guled, in Horn Briefs, January 1^st, 2026; Lesley Anne Warner, in World Politics Review, Dec 31, 2025; The Arab Weekly, 02/01/2026; The Wire, 09/Jan/2026.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced in late December that Israel would recognise the independence of Somaliland, a state of the Federal Republic of Somalia, which had unsuccessfully sought international recognition after declaring its independence in 1991, despite maintaining its own government, currency, and army.

The news was released after discussions held “in the utmost secrecy, involving the Mossad in a para-diplomatic role,” said David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation in Paris.

Condemnations and Concerns. A Fragmented International Response

During the UN Security Council emergency consultations, Somali diplomats argued that Somaliland lacks the legal capacity to enter into international agreements.

Over 50 countries condemned Israel’s move. The recognition sparked outrage in Somalia and many Middle Eastern countries, while the African Union and the European Union stated that Somalia’s territorial integrity must be respected.

Türkiye and Egypt, both deeply committed to Red Sea security and wary of Israeli expansion, condemned the recognition as destabilising.

The African Union and the Arab League closed ranks around the principle of territorial integrity, fearing that recognising Somaliland could encourage secessionist movements across the continent.

China reiterated its support for Somalia’s sovereignty, in line with its broader opposition to unilateral recognitions that challenge established borders.

India expressed its opinion through the spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, who said, “India has longstanding ties with Somalia. We continue to underline the importance of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.”

The United States has taken a more ambiguous stance. While reiterating its recognition of the Federal Government of Somalia alone, Washington has defended Israel’s sovereign right to conduct its own diplomacy.

Ḥarakat al-Shabāb al-Mujāhidīn (Mujāhidīn Youth Movement), the Islamist movement formerly a special force of the Islamic Courts Union and in the past recognised by al-Qāʿida as its cell in Somalia, accused the Somali government of failing to defend its national territory and vowed to target any Israeli presence in Somaliland.

Despite the negative reactions, on New Year’s Eve, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (photo above), the President of Somaliland, known as Cirro, and founder of the nationalist-inspired Patriotic Party, expressed confidence that “many more nations will soon formally recognise the Republic of Somaliland.”

Taiwan, similarly an internationally unrecognised state, welcomed Somaliland’s recognition, citing shared democratic values ​​and effectively entering the debate on great power competition.

On January 1^st, Somalia assumed the rotating Presidency of the U.N. Security Council, a role carrying little formal power but immense symbolic weight. According to Abdi Guled, a Somali analyst and former Horn of Africa correspondent for the Associated Press and Reuters, although Somalia’s presidency of the Security Council will last only a month, the repercussions of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland could last much longer. The rotating presidency sets agendas, convenes meetings, and guides procedures, but does not dictate their outcomes. At the top of the list is the expected funding for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), whose mandate will run until the end of 2026. The agenda also covers usual topics: counterterrorism operations against al-Shabāb, the nexus between humanitarian aid, development, and peace, and the need for African-led security solutions.

Somalia claims Somaliland as part of its territory

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (below), President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, which claims Somaliland as part of its territory, told Al Jazeera that he believes Israel’s true intentions are to expel Gazans to Somalia.

He warned that Israel’s recognition “was not merely a diplomatic gesture but a cover for specific, high-stakes Israeli strategic objectives,” and claimed that Israel would “export its problem in Gaza” to the Horn of Africa, describing the move as opening “a box of evils in the world.” “Israel does not have any peaceful intentions in coming to Somalia. This is a step of utmost danger, and the whole world, especially Arabs and Muslims, must view it as a serious threat,” President Mohamud said.

Mohamud, who is also the founder of the ruling Islamic-democratic party Union for Peace and Development, said Somaliland had accepted three conditions from Israel:

• The resettlement of Palestinians in the country;
• The establishment of a military base on the Gulf of Aden coast;
• Accession to the Abraham Accords to normalise relations with Israel.

Somaliland has firmly rejected this hypothesis, publicly acknowledging only the last condition mentioned. However, Abdirahman Dahir Adan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, also known as Bakaal, told Israeli public broadcaster KAN in March last year that the country would not rule out accepting displaced Palestinians.

The Israeli announcement of recognition did not refer to any demands or conditions in return. But Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu confirmed that Somaliland would join the accords, telling the U.S. news agency Newsmax that he would “support a democratic, moderate country, a Muslim country, that wants to join the Abraham Accords.”

Al Jazeera reported that, as officials in the capital Hargeysa pushed for recognition, rumours began circulating that Somaliland was interested in supporting Israel’s widely condemned goal of Palestinians’ ethnic cleansing.

Plans for voluntary migration for Palestinians from Gaza – initially enthusiastically promoted by Israel – have stalled, with U.S. President Donald Trump gradually withdrawing his support for the idea he proposed in February, coupled with the global refusal to accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza. A source told Zman Yisrael, the Hebrew-language edition of the Times of Israel online newspaper, that only Indonesia had expressed willingness to resettle Gazans.

According to KAN, Somaliland President Abdullahi is planning an official visit to Israel in the coming weeks. Sources at the same station reported that the visit could take place as early as the second week of January, during which Abdullahi will formally join the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu had initially invited Cirro during a video call to announce mutual recognition.

Somaliland denies agreeing to take in Gaza refugees or host Israeli military bases

Hargeysa says Somali President Mohamud’s accusations are aimed at undermining the country’s diplomatic progress.

Somaliland’s Foreign Minister, Adan, officially denied agreeing to welcome Gaza refugees or allow Israel to establish military bases on its territory in exchange for Israeli recognition.

“The Government of the Republic of Somaliland firmly rejects false claims made by the President of Somalia alleging the resettlement of Palestinians or the establishment of military bases in Somaliland,” he wrote in an official post on X. “Somaliland’s engagement with the State of Israel is purely diplomatic, conducted in full respect of international law and the mutual sovereign interests of both countries,” the statement continued. “These baseless allegations are intended to mislead the international community and undermine Somaliland’s diplomatic progress. Somaliland remains committed to regional stability and peaceful international cooperation.”

Minister Adan stated that no talks have taken place on the issue, but did not rule out the possibility, unlike other countries rumoured to be interested in Israel.

“We are open to discussion on any matter, but we do not want to speculate on matters that have not yet been discussed. All countries that are interested in discussing certain issues with us must first establish working relations with us and open diplomatic missions in Somaliland,” Adan said. “The most important thing for us is to receive recognition after showing the world that we are a peace-loving and democratic country, which has been independent for 33 years.”

Adan appeared to downplay regional concerns, telling Israeli broadcaster i24NEWS that while some countries “feel Israel establishing a relationship will cause their downfall,” such fears are unfounded.

“A cover for Israeli targets”

The recognition sparked widespread anger across Somalia, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets on December 30^th, with Somali flags in the capital, Mogadishu, and in federal states across the country, from Baidoa in southwestern Somalia to Dhusamareb in Galmudugh, Las Anod in the northeast, and other cities.

Ali Mohamed Omar, Somalia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, warned that Israel’s move could “disrupt Somalia’s democratic and state-building efforts, and contribute to instability in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.”

Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, Minister of Defence, former Foreign Minister and Director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency, said his country would categorically reject “any proposal or initiative, from any party, that would undermine the Palestinian people’s right to live peacefully on their ancestral land.”

“Somalia’s presidency of the [UN] Security Council underscores a simple reality,” a senior Foreign Ministry official in Mogadishu said by telephone. “Somalia is a sovereign, internationally recognised state, and no external decision can alter its territorial integrity or the legal status of its regions.”

Somaliland enjoys unique geostrategic importance, offering direct access to the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Bāb al-Mandeb, one of the world’s busiest trade routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This raises the possibility that the Horn of Africa could become another arena for Middle Eastern rivalries to spill over.

“This was not an act of sentiment; it was an act of geography,” a Nairobi-based regional security analyst stated in Guled’s report. “Recognition gives Israel optionality, though contested in a maritime theater that has become central to its security calculus, especially as Red Sea tensions intensify.”

“The possibility of operating from Somaliland territory could change the game,” said Asher Lubotzky, a researcher at the Institute for Israel-Africa Relations in Herzliya, Tel Aviv District.

Some analysts also point out that Israel’s new alliance in the region is further fuelling the growing rivalry between Tel Aviv and Ankara, given Türkiye’s naval presence in Somali waters. The two countries are already at loggerheads in the attempts to expand their respective influence in Syria, and Ankara aims to send troops to the Gaza Strip under the leadership of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF), the UN-mandated multinational peacekeeping force. Israel has categorically rejected this possibility, highlighting Türkiye’s ties to the Ḥamās Islamic Resistance Movement.

By recognising Somaliland, Israel would now be signalling its intention to build alliances against Iran along the shores of a pro-Western and relatively politically stable country. According to some experts, this move could actually benefit Israel against the Tehrān-supported so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Middle East, while also turning the Horn of Africa into a new battlefield.

Security expert Samira Gaid, founder and Director of the Somali think tank Balqiis in Mogadishu, confirms that Israel’s recognition accelerates “the entanglement, over the past decade, of the Horn of Africa in Middle Eastern rivalries … and reinforces concerns that the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are becoming militarised political spaces rather than neutral commercial corridors.” Colin Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center in New York, agrees. “The Horn of Africa, like other regions of the continent, has become a battleground between so-called ‘middle powers’,” he said.

The Red Sea and the Strait of Bāb al-Mandeb have become increasingly crowded with rival naval ambitions, proxy conflicts and intelligence competition, intensified pressures from the war in Gaza, and escalating clashes involving Iran and Yemen.

But analysts say that Israel particularly needs an alliance with Somaliland due to its strategic location near Yemen, home to the Zaydi Shiite Ḥūthis, who, before the US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, imposed a naval blockade on Israeli-linked vessels and fired rockets at its territory. According to a November report by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University, “Somaliland’s territory could serve as a forward base” for monitoring intelligence on the Ḥūthis and “a platform for direct operations” against them.

According to Yemen’s official Saba news agency, Sayyed ʿAbd al-Malik Badr ad-Din al-Ḥūthi, the movement’s leader, warned that the organisation “will consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland as a military target,” a statement that Mostafa Hasan, Somaliland’s former intelligence chief, called tantamount to a declaration of war.